@article{
author = {Dean A. Wilkening},
title = {A simple model for calculating ballistic missile defense effectiveness},
journal = {Science & Global Security},
volume = {8},
number = {2},
pages = {183-215},
year = {2000},
URL = {https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2000/01/a_simple_model_for_calculating.html},
eprint = {http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs08wilkening.pdf},
abstract = {This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the technical performance required for a defense to meet specific political/military objectives. The defense objective is stated as a certain probability that no warheads leak through the defense. The technical performance is captured by the interceptor single-shot probability of kill and the warhead detection, tracking, and classification probability. Attacks are characterized by the number of warheads and undiscriminated decoys. Barrage and shoot-look-shoot firing modes are examined, with the optimal interceptor allocation derived for the shoot-look-shoot mode. Applications of this model for sizing national and theater missile ballistic missile defenses are discussed.}
}