TY  - JOUR
T1  - A simple model for calculating ballistic missile defense effectiveness
AU  - Dean A. Wilkening
PY  - 2000
T2  - Science & Global Security
SP  - 183
EP  - 215
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
N2  - This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the technical performance required for a defense to meet specific political/military objectives. The defense objective is stated as a certain probability that no warheads leak through the defense. The technical performance is captured by the interceptor single-shot probability of kill and the warhead detection, tracking, and classification probability. Attacks are characterized by the number of warheads and undiscriminated decoys. Barrage and shoot-look-shoot firing modes are examined, with the optimal interceptor allocation derived for the shoot-look-shoot mode. Applications of this model for sizing national and theater missile ballistic missile defenses are discussed.
UR  - http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs08wilkening.pdf
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