@article{
author = {Benjamin Jung, Malte Göttsche},
title = {Assessing Uncertainty in Plutonium Production Estimates Based on the Isotope Ratio Method},
journal = {Science & Global Security},
volume = {30},
number = {1},
pages = {3-21},
year = {2022},
URL = {https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2022/01/assessing_uncertainty_in_pluto.html},
eprint = {https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs30jung.pdf},
abstract = {Independent estimates of lifetime plutonium production can be made using forensic measurements of characteristic indicator isotope ratios in core structural elements in shut-down nuclear reactors. Incomplete knowledge of a reactor's operational history, including fuel burnup, as well as uncertainties in nuclear cross-section data, can significantly affect such plutonium estimates, making it potentially difficult to match estimates with a state's declaration. Monte Carlo methods and sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess the propagation of different uncertainties and their impact on plutonium estimates in infinite lattice models of a heavy-water moderated reactor (CANDU 6) and a graphite-moderated reactor (the 5 MWe reactor in North Korea), with titanium-48/titanium-49 and boron-10/boron-11 as the respective indicator isotope ratios. A tolerance interval model, with specified confidence levels, rather than one based on mean values and standard deviations, is proposed for assessing plutonium estimates based on isotope ratios measurements.}
}