A simple model for calculating ballistic missile defense effectiveness

This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the technical performance required for a defense to meet specific political/military objectives. The defense objective is stated as a certain probability that no warheads leak through the defense. The technical performance is captured by the interceptor single?shot probability of kill and the warhead detection, tracking, and classification probability. Attacks are characterized by the number of warheads and undiscriminated decoys. Barrage and shoot?look?shoot firing modes are examined, with the optimal interceptor allocation derived for the shoot?look?shoot mode. Applications of this model for sizing national and theater missile ballistic missile defenses are discussed.

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