Dynamic analysis of nuclear excursions in underground repositories containing plutonium

Robert Kimpland, "Dynamic analysis of nuclear excursions in underground repositories containing plutonium," Science & Global Security, 5, no. 3, (1996): 323-332.
A recent study performed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory postulates that plutonium-239 stored in underground repositories could lead to a nuclear explosion of up to a few hundred gigajoules. The study suggests that plutonium originally contained in glass logs could escape its containment and disperse into the surrounding native rock of the repository. This dispersion would then lead to an autocatalytic process that ultimately would lead to a catastrophic nuclear explosion. A computer model that simulates this autocatalytic process has been developed at the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility. The model has been used to determine the fission yield of such an event and the effects of that yield on the repository. The goal of this work is to quantify the consequences of the autocatalytic process, not to determine the probability of such an event occurring.

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