Estimates of India's Fissile Material Stocks

R. Rajaraman, "Estimates of India's Fissile Material Stocks," Science & Global Security, 16, no. 3, (2008): 74-86.
Estimates of India's current stocks of fissile material holdings are presented, along with projections of their future production. India's plutonium stocks (weapon-grade and reactor-grade) are first calculated in spent fuel form. Then different efficiency scenarios for India's reprocessing plants are assumed to estimate how much of this plutonium is likely to have been separated. Similarly the best possible estimates of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) production are inferred from publicly available information about the capacity of India's major enrichment plant. In addition, projections are made of the quantities of these different fissile materials likely to be produced in the future, from now until 2020. The impact of the Indo-US Deal on future production is also discussed. Each estimate is accompanied by the detailed basis on which it is made.

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