L. M. Arthur, R. Scott Kemp, "Emerging Accuracy of Ballistic Missile Guidance Systems," Science & Global Security 33, no. 1-3 (2025): 48-67
This paper explores the applications and limitations of purely inertial navigation systems, the use of global navigation satellite systems, and the integration of inertial navigation systems with global navigation satellite systems. A full trajectory simulation accounts for gravitational anomalies, atmospheric effects, and instrumentation errors with Monte Carlo sampling for uncertain parameters and complete error propagation. This simulation disambiguates the contributions of each source of uncertainty to the total error in the final impact point for a range of ballistic trajectories with and without maneuverable reentry vehicles and estimates the limitations to accuracy at intercontinental ranges. Based on these results, the paper discusses the potential for integration of inertial navigation systems with global navigation satellite systems to improve the accuracy of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
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