Cecilia Gustavsson, Peter Andersson, Erik Branger, Grant Christopher, Jaewoo Shin, Hailey Wingo, "Modeling Plutonium Production in the Experimental Light Water Reactor of North Korea," Science & Global Security 33, no. 1-3 (2025): 68-88
Since North Korea left the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 2003, its nuclear fuel cycle has continued to operate and develop further, without transparency to international inspectors. A recent addition is the Experimental Light Water Reactor that started operation in October 2023. One concern is that this reactor may be used to produce plutonium for nuclear warheads, in addition to or instead of being used for electricity production. In this work, fissile material production in the new reactor is explored by modeling a possible core design and integrating information from available remote monitoring, such as satellite imagery of cooling water outlets from the facility. The results indicate that running the reactor with an initial enrichment of 1.75% or lower could potentially produce up to 20?kg of weapons-grade plutonium annually, substantially increasing North Korean plutonium production.
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