Raven Witherspoon, Svitlana Lavrenciuc, Sébastien Philippe, "Consequence Analysis of Major Fires at Plutonium Pit Production Facilities," Science & Global Security (2026): 1-20.
As the United states reestablishes large-scale plutonium pitp roduction, federal agencies have published environmental impact studies estimating radiological consequences from major facility fires in New Mexico and South Carolina. these analyses predict average latent cancer fatalities in the single digits but do not evaluate total cancers or remediation costs from land contamination. Using atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling, this study independently estimates down-wind plutonium deposition and inhalation, cancer risk, and land contamination across meteorological conditions for different source terms. For assumptions consistent with current federal analyses, a 1-kilogram respirable release could produce upto 21 latent cancer fatalities, with total cancers three times higher. tens of square kilometers of land could require billions of dollars in soil remediation, while contamination in residential areas could require evacuation. larger releases involving differ-ent fire conditions and smaller particle sizes could cause over1,000 fatalities, suggesting current assessments may underestimate accident consequences.
Article access: Taylor & Francis Online | Free PDF
