How much plutonium could have been produced in the DPRK IRT reactor?

In a previous study1 the author estimated the maximum quantity of plutonium that could be produced in thermal research reactors in the potential nuclear weapon states (including North Korea), based on their declared power levels. Several follow-up studies focused on estimating and revising upper bounds on the aggregate quantity of plutonium that could have been produced in the North Korean research reactor. Albright independently estimated the amount of plutonium the North Koreans may have produced since 1986 in the 5-megawatt-electric power reactor at Yongbyon and provided an upper-bound estimate of weapon-grade plutonium produced cumulatively if the gas-graphite (magnox) reactor had achieved a load factor of 0.80. Albright's cumulative estimate did not include the potential plutonium production in the 8-mega-watt-thermal research reactor, called the IRT-DPRK by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). To better quantify the possible cumulative North Korean production, this paper estimates the plutonium content in the irradiated material (PCIM). The estimates are based on what could have been produced in the IRT-DPRK research reactor operating at the declared power level during the entire period it has operated, including a period during which it was not safeguarded.

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