Acoustic-Seismic Detection of Ballistic-Missile Launches for Cooperative Early Warning of Nuclear Attack

In order to fill gaps in Russian early-warning systems, sensors can be deployed cooperatively near the silos of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that would sense a launch and would transmit continuously the information that no launch has occurred. The extremely loud launch noise propagates to kilometers and can be detected passively in all weather conditions by the induced ground motion. Buried seismic sensors minimize the intrusion and disturbance above the ground. Considerations of the propagation and acoustic-seismic transfer, as well as potential other sources of strong sound or ground motion, lead to the recommendation that acceleration sensors should be deployed at 0.1-1 km from each silo. Arrays of three sensors allow to estimate the azimuth and elevation of the source, improving discrimination from, e.g., overflying jet aircraft. The time course of signal amplitude, its maximum, and spectral characteristics provide additional characteristics to recognize a launch and other source types. One station would cost below $50,000 so that all 800 ICBM silos of the USA and Russia can be covered at around $40 million. Deployment can start after a development and testing phase of one to two years. Extension to mobile ICBMs and other nuclear states is possible.

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