Benjamin Jung, Malte Göttsche, "Assessing Uncertainty in Plutonium Production Estimates Based on the Isotope Ratio Method," Science & Global Security 30, no. 1 (2022): 3-21
Independent estimates of lifetime plutonium production can be made using forensic measurements of characteristic indicator isotope ratios in core structural elements in shut-down nuclear reactors. Incomplete knowledge of a reactor's operational history, including fuel burnup, as well as uncertainties in nuclear cross-section data, can significantly affect such plutonium estimates, making it potentially difficult to match estimates with a state's declaration. Monte Carlo methods and sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess the propagation of different uncertainties and their impact on plutonium estimates in infinite lattice models of a heavy-water moderated reactor (CANDU 6) and a graphite-moderated reactor (the 5 MWe reactor in North Korea), with titanium-48/titanium-49 and boron-10/boron-11 as the respective indicator isotope ratios. A tolerance interval model, with specified confidence levels, rather than one based on mean values and standard deviations, is proposed for assessing plutonium estimates based on isotope ratios measurements.
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